How Much Plastic Will Be Displaced From The Chinese Import Ban?

China has been increasing restrictions on its plastic waste imports since 2007. In 2010, it implemented its “Green Fence” program – a temporary restriction for plastic imports with significantly less contamination.

In 2017 it implemented a much stricter, permanent ban on non-industrial plastic imports.

By 2030, it’s estimated that around 110 million tonnes of plastic will be displaced as a result of the ban. This plastic waste will have to be handled domestically or exported to another country. Brooks et al. (2018) suggest this ban has several implications:

• exporting countries can use this as an opportunity to improve domestic recycled infrastructure and generate internal markets;

• if recycling infrastructure is lacking, this provides further incentive for countries to reduce primary plastic production (and create more circular material models) to reduce the quantity of waste which needs to be handled;

• it fundamentally changes the nature of global plastic trade, representing an opportunity to share and promote best practices of waste management, and harmonize technical standards on waste protocols;

• some other countries may attempt to become a key plastic importer in place of China; one challenge is that many countries do not yet have sufficient waste management infrastructure to handle recycled waste imports;

• countries considering importing significant quantities of plastic waste could consider an import tax specifically aimed at funding the development of sufficient infrastructure to handle such waste.

• exporting countries can use more reusable plastic or biodegradable and compostable plastic product